Long-term risk assessment of the lava flow hazard on the Reykjanes Peninsula has been published.

Long-term risk assessment of lava flows on the Reykjanes Peninsula

Today, two reports on the long-term risk assessment of lava hazards on the Reykjanes Peninsula were published, as part of a comprehensive project by the Meteorological Office to comprehensively assess the volcanic hazard across the entire peninsula.

In total, four reports have been published in the project, which began in early 2024 and is due to be completed in 2027. This year, four reports on the threat of fissures, two further reports on the threat of lava flows, and one report on the threat of earthquakes will be added. Reports on tephra fall, gas pollution and groundwater contamination will then follow next year. Compiling an assessment of volcanic risk in a single project for an area containing seven volcanic systems, sixteen municipalities and numerous critical infrastructure is a comprehensive undertaking and, in fact, unique worldwide.

A long-term lava flow hazard assessment identifies which areas are potential eruption source areas and which areas could be exposed to lava flows, based on the area's volcanic history. The primary aim of the assessment is to reduce damage with a focus on infrastructure, and the findings are an important input for the planning of settlements and land use.

The report provides detailed information on the areas exposed to the threat of lava flows, and the findings are useful for urban planners, operators of critical infrastructure, and emergency responders, for instance for updating response plans.

The findings in the reports support what was already known and do not revolutionise the understanding of where the threat from lava flows lies to settlements and infrastructure in the capital region.

The results of a long-term risk assessment do not answer what constitutes „acceptable risk“. as to settlement or activity in the area, but they do, however, provide the basis for such dialogue and decision-making and will be an important tool in the hands of local authorities in the area for planning future settlement and economic activity.

Alongside the publication of the reports, the Met Office has launched a website and an interactive map viewer where the results and content of the reports can be viewed in more detail.

• See the new page, www.eldfjallava.is
• See the report Lava hazard on the Reykjanes Peninsula – Long-term risk assessment
• See the report Lava threat in the capital region – Long-term risk assessment
• See the Met Office summary here.